Severe thunderstorm risk Friday
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Here’s the state’s severe weather expert telling us to brace for a new storm Friday. Here’s the preview from Frank Strait at the DNR office in Columbia: “I hope you made it through Tuesday’s storm safely, but not everyone did. Wind gusts over 50 mph were widespread across South Carolina, the National Weather Service is surveying three areas of potential tornado damage (damage in Bamberg likely was a tornado), and 3-6 inches of rain fell in the Upstate and vicinity, causing flash flooding, and several rivers in the state are above flood stage or will rise above flood stage in the coming days. So, are y’all ready to do it all again on Friday? Me neither! But, like it or not, another intense storm system will affect this part of the country at the end of the week. No two storms are the same, and Friday’s storm will present different hazards than Tuesday’s. For starters, the wind outside of thunderstorms won’t be as strong. Peak gusts over most of the state will only be in the 35-45 mph range. That’s blustery and a major annoyance for motorists, but it’s not the kind of wind we saw Tuesday, and those winds won’t be strong enough to cause any noteworthy damage. Parts of the state will get a soaking from the storm’s showers and thunderstorms. However, this also won’t be as bad as Tuesday, with most areas getting only a half inch to an inch. That may have a limited impact on the river flooding situation, but the flash flooding risk will be low on Friday. The coastal flooding potential also looks lower, but there could be minor coastal flooding around Friday morning’s high tide. Once again, the strongest onshore winds will come during the afternoon, close to low tide. On the other hand, the severe thunderstorm and tornado threat could be serious. Like on Tuesday, a warm front will lift northward through South Carolina during the day, with warm and humid air containing more thunderstorm fuel than we typically see in January surging into the state during the afternoon and evening. The warm front cause some rain and perhaps embedded thunderstorms. Then, a cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening to trigger more thunderstorms. Like on Tuesday, the other ingredients for severe thunderstorms will be in ample supply; winds will be strong not far above the surface, and wind shear in the bottom part of the atmosphere will be tremendous. The Storm Prediction Center is definitely worried about Friday, as they already have much of the state outlined with a level 3 of 5 ‘enhanced risk’ area on their Day 3 outlook. If you’ve been paying attention to the SPC outlooks for a while, you probably have realized that they reserve level 3 and higher risk areas for when they think a setup looks especially dangerous. That’s even more true when they include those areas in their outlook for the second and third days. It’s rare for them to issue a level 3 risk area on their outlook for the third day, as they have done today for Friday. So, the severe thunderstorm risk will be the main concern on Friday. The primary risk will be damaging straight-line wind, but isolated tornadoes will also be a threat. Like on Tuesday, one key will be whether we see the sun pop out during the afternoon after the warm front lifts north of us. If so, then temperatures may shoot up into the high 60s and 70s, providing the instability needed to trigger those discrete thunderstorm cells I talked about in the lead-up to Tuesday. Those would more likely be supercell thunderstorms that present a tornado threat. Now is a good time to review tornado safety tips, found on SCEMD’s website and ready.gov. As I’ve said before, take some time to create or review a severe weather action plan in advance so you’re ready to act when a warning is issued. Look for updates on Thursday and Friday as the picture for our next storm becomes clearer.”
Frank Strait |
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