Tracking Isaias

At 8 AM, Tropical Storm Isaias was 145 miles SSE of Beaufort tracking north at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are a recon aircraft estimated 70 mph with the highest winds in a small envelope on the eastern side of the storm.  The storm broadened overnight; however the wind field remains rather compact. Cloud top cooling, eye wall alignment and broad upper outflow on the western side of the storm are hinting at possible brief intensification. The National Hurricane Center tweaked the forecast on the 5 AM advisory with a track shift to the east and forecasting a brief upgrade to a 75 mph hurricane late this afternoon before making landfall on the SC-NC state line west of Wilmington. Hurricane force winds remain confined on the eastern side of the storm track as it passes Myrtle Beach bound for Long Island. Despite the nudge eastwards, Isaias will still put some strong winds on the beach later today. Rainfall amounts easily in the 2-4 inch range along and east of I-95 with isolated bull eyes of 5-10 inches. Storm surge, 1-2 ft Beaufort,  2-4 feet Myrtle Beach.